The election results that changed everybody's plans

By Pablo Ibáñez

The victory of the Peronist Party over the UCR in the provincial elections -by nearly seven thousand votes- in Catamarca, boosted the political diagnosis and strategies of both the Kirchnerite sector and the members of the opposition regarding October's presidential elections.

The aftermath of the election forced both winners and losers to reset their political plans. The government was excited about a clear path towards "an unavoidable re-election" of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

The opposition began to foresee a cataclysm: Catamarca was supposed to represent a trench aimed at stopping the Kirchnerite sector in the electoral field. Beating pro-government candidate Lucía Corpacci would have at least denied the Kirchnerite resurgence. But the Peronist's victory destroyed their dreams.

Twenty days ago, political analyses predicted that the pro-government sector would lose the provincial elections in Catamarca and Chubut provinces, but would win in Salta.

As a result, and following the suggestion of Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo and Juan Carlos Mazzón, Cristina Fernández was forced to change the historical electoral schedule in La Rioja province and election was called for May, in a move to offset this negative tendency.

Now, the political panorama has changed after the elections held in Catamarca province. For that reason, the opposition sees Chubut Governor Mario Das Neves as a "Crusader."  

Yesterday, Das Neves took advantage of this political antagonism. "I will defeat Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to prove that I am the only politician who can do it." His words were addressed to the anti-Kirchnerite sector.

Last night, the Kirchnerite sector analyzed the political scene in Chubut. Unlike in the Catamarca case, the Peronist Party is divided into different groups in the southern province. For that reason, the government is willing to seduce the many sectors in the Peronist Party.

The political puzzle in Catamarca confirms the thesis. "I'd rather fight to distribute our political power than fight to know why we lost it," a Peronist leader assured.

By way of example, the pro-government sector claims that former BA province governor Felipe Solá is determined not to participate in the internal elections of the Federal Peronism
They also said that he resumed contact talks with former political allies.


Political timetable

The federal government also expects to control other internal disputes. In Córdoba province, Juan Schiaretti and José Manuel de la Sota debate whether to split general elections (both provincial and national referendums) into two different events or not. Also, bringing forward the provincial elections would diminish the potential of CFK's presidential candidacy and help Luis Juez or the UCR to win elections.

Meanwhile, Buenos Aires City Mayor Mauricio Macri assured that his administration is to split general elections into two different events. Macri is expected to make the official announcement after his trip to USA and France. Elections in BA City are expected to be held after July 24^th.

"I'll run for president," Macri told his cabinet and political allies.


UCR's presidential pre-candidate of Ernesto Sanz travelled to Catamarca for a celebration that was never made. Later, he politely urged members of the opposition to work together. "The Radical Party can't make it by itself," Sanz added.


Elections in Chubut will show the true political scene in Argentina.


Translated by Jimena Gibert